We can only guess whether Shrub's secret repeat visit to Iraq was dreamed up before the Abu Zarqawi Hour went off the air, as the White House claims, or whether the trip was actually thrown together on the fly in an effort to milk a little more free publicity from the final episode. Either way, the stunt revealed as much about the depleted state of the Cheney administration's bag of propaganda tricks as it did about the gang's determination to keep pouring blood and treasure into the world's largest hole in the desert.
Sending America's titular head of state to Baghdad the first time, to celebrate Thanksgiving with the troops in 2003, was a clever stroke -- just the thing to distract the media from the rapidly deteriorating security situation, which only a few weeks before had sent generals and diplomats (including the current president of the World Bank) scurrying for cover in their underwear.
Of course, simply waving a shiny metal object in front of the White House press corps probably would have been just as effective, not to mention a whole lot cheaper for the taxpayers, but you still can't argue with the results: saturation coverage of the world's biggest Thanksgiving turkey -- serving dinner to a bunch of grinning GIs.
But that was then and this is now, and while distracting the media is still child's play (literally) the voters have grown quite a bit more jaded after nearly three years of watching flag-wrapped coffins shipped home COD. At this point, Sending Bush to do the grip-and-grin with the new Iraqi prime minister and his cabinet isn't exactly must-see TV.
Meanwhile, the reviews on the Zarqawi farewell special have been mixed at best, with the polls showing only a teeny tiny bounce -- if that -- in Bush's approval ratings, both on Iraq and in general. Although a bare majority of those polled by Gallup agreed that Zarqawi's swan song was a "major accomplishment" for the war effort, most appeared rather stumped when asked why they feel that way. Only one in five expected the series finale to lead to a significant reduction in insurgent attacks, while 30% thought -- probably correctly -- that it will lead to more violence, at least in the short run.
The problem for the Cheney administration and its legion of GOP bootclickers is that the short run is all that's left between them and the first Tuesday in November. With hopes for a sizable pre-election troop withdrawal now dead on the vine, Commander Codpiece and his crew face a long, hard slog across the sands over next five months. (Of course, it won't be even one-tenth as hard as it will for the troops actually marooned in the Mesopotamian hellhole -- no matter what kind of martial fantasies Karl Rove may entertain for himself. But we're talking politics here, not reality.)
And politically, it comes down to this: Ever since the war began to go south -- say, in the late summer or early fall of 2003 -- the Cheneyites have relied on a never-ending string of bogus "turning points" to deflect criticism and create the illusion that victory in Iraq (whatever that means) is creeping closer, despite the mounting chaos and death. But with Zarqawi's elimination, the never-ending string has, for all intents and purposes, ended.
There are no more name-brand dictators or terrorists left to catch or kill: Zarqawi's successor is so obscure nobody seems to know who he is or where he came from -- it's not even written into the script yet. The elections are over, so there'll be no more purple fingers to wave in front of the cameras. The "permanent" government has been formed; all of its ministers finally named.
The turning points, in other words, have all been turned, and Iraq is still a killing field. Now that the last few macbre headlines have been squeezed out of Zarqwari's autopsy report, democracy boy and his handlers literally have nothing to look forward to -- except a long, hot summer of IEDs, ethnic cleansing and more of those flag-wrapped caskets being Federal Expressed to cemetaries around the country.
To be sure, you know this won't stop the machine from simply making shit up -- kilowatt hours of available electricty conjured out of thin air, paper battalions magically transformed into crack commando units, pins on maps marking pacified villages where insurgents held sway only days before. If there is one thing that any bureaucracy knows how to do, and do well, it's spit out the kind of statistics that can make defeat look like victory, at least for a while.
Who knows? Some of those stats might even be true. But the kind of painfully slow, infinitesimally incremental progress that might -- might -- be possible over the next five months, if a full-scale sectarian civil war can be avoided, is hardly going to cut through the televised misery of a war that no longer seems to be under anyone's control, least of all the pinheads in charge of the American side of it.
The real irony, though, is that all of it -- the recycled propaganda tricks, the bogus progress reports, the brainkilling repetition of Orwellian talking points -- might well be for naught, even if it works.
The administration (which in this case means Karl Rove) seems to believe that Iraq is its number one political liability, while the economy is its biggest asset. Thus Rove's recent advice to the party faithful to "run on the economy." But once again, Turdblossom appears to be a bit slow grasping the fact that reality is moving in a different direction than wish fufillment. The Bush boom is in the process of going bust, deflating almost as rapidly as the asking price on a San Diego condo unit or the bid on an ounce of gold for September delivery. Global stock markets are busy discounting a rapid slowdown in global economic growth, while the Federal Reserve is signaling (practically screaming, actually) that it is going to continue kicking inflation right in the teeth, even if it's the average American worker who ends up needing a set of dentures.
It's possible, if not likely, that the brunt of the slowdown will be felt after the election. But given how disgruntled most middle class voters (i.e. the kind who don't attend Dick Cheney's fundraisers) are feeling about the economy already, it isn't going to take much to give the Democrats a nice, safe bread-and-butter issue -- the kind that even they can't screw up, or at least not entirely. I can already hear the jokes: Bush always wanted to outdo his father, so he decided to have two recessions instead of just one, etc. etc.
The GOP's real problem, in other words, may be on Main Street, not in the Green Zone, which means the photos from this latest photo op all have the wrong faces in them. Now that Fitzgerald's axe is no longer poised over his neck, I'm sure Rover will realize this sooner or later, and shift gears accordingly -- probably about the time another crisis breaks out back in Baghdad, or in some other part of the president's job description. Hurricane season, after all, is only just getting started.
Update 11:50 PM ET: I mentioned above that fooling the White House press corps was still something your average six-year-old could do in his or her sleep, and along comes Knight Ridder's Ron Hutcheson to prove me right.
Now the Knight Ridder Washington bureau has provided some of the best, if not the best coverage of the Iraq War in the U.S. mainstream media, so we know it isn't filled with complete idiots. Nor does Hutchenson seem like a complete idiot -- at least, not for a White House reporter, which admittedly is setting the bar a little low. And yet he went and wrote a lead like this:
Bush invites critics to discuss warLooking for new ideas on Iraq, President Bush sought advice from his critics Monday at an unusual two-day war council.
The headline alone probably gave Dan Bartlett an orgasm. See? Bush is not trapped in an airtight bubble of self-regard. He listens to people, even when they disagree with him. Why he probably only gave them the finger once or twice.
But here's who Hutchenson (and the White House) consider "the critics":
In addition to [Fred] Kagan, Bush heard from Eliot Cohen, a professor of strategic studies at Johns Hopkins University, journalist Robert Kaplan and former CIA officer Michael Vickers, who now is with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.
We're talking, in other words, about the same neocon assclowns who got us into Iraq in the first place, who made a complete mess out of the initial occupation with their idiotic, Israel-centric views about what's wrong with the Arabs, and who've been consistently clueless about every single policy issue they've opened their freaking pieholes about -- and they open them so often they've got pie filling permanently dribbling down their chins. To call these guys war "critics" is like calling Typhoid Mary a "critic" of 19th century hygiene standards.
If Bush called in people like Gen. Zinni or William Lind or Ahmed Hashim or Andrew Bacevich (in other words, people who actually know what they're talking about) and listened to what they had to say, instead of spouting self-serving nonsense in their faces for 10 minutes and then shooing them out of the Oval Office, that would be taking advice from his critics. What Hutcheson is talking about is offering olive branches to the same neocon mafia that has virtually wrecked Bush's presidency. And yet somehow the White House propaganda department convinced Hutchenson to toe the party line, right down to the millimeter.
So I think I have to take back what I said about how any child could fool the White House press corps. No self-respecting child would be caught dead talking to such utter chumps.